Document Type

Honors Project - Open Access

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Advised by Dr. Mario Solis-Garcia

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. I model the relationship following the expanded Solow Growth Model, proposing a dual health capital and educational human capital mechanism through which ART impacts growth. While previous studies propose conflicting results, I use the most comprehensive dataset, and employ theory-backed specifications to provide the most accurate and reliable estimates of the effect. Using a panel of all 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, I employ a two-stage least squares shift-share/Bartik instrumental variable approach, including two-way fixed effects to estimate the effect of a rapid expansion of ART coverage on economic growth between 2001 - 2019. I show that, contrary to previous estimates, ART coverage does not have a significant effect on economic growth. While naive estimates suggest a significant relationship, these results are not robust to various specifications. I posit possible reasons for the difference to previous estimates.

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