Box Office Showdown: How Does Movie Market Saturation Affect First Weekend Box Office Revenues?

Document Type

Honors Project - Open Access


The scheduling of release dates for feature films is among the most important decisions that movie studios make in the life cycle of a movie. While the economic literature on the movie industry has largely focused on modeling the box office success of a movie based on its own characteristics—star power, critical reception, and trailer data—there is a dearth of literature concerning the way that competition from within the industry affects box office revenues. This article primarily uses a propensity score matching model to fill a gap in the literature, establishing causal relationships between different forms of competition and first weekend box office revenues. Notably, the article finds a significant negative effect of releasing alongside a movie of the same genre, no significant effect associated with releasing alongside a movie of the same MPAA rating, and a game-theory dependent significantly positive relationship for releasing alongside an ex ante blockbuster.

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