Honors Project - Open Access
I examine the herding behavior of macroeconomic forecasters for real GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts. Although previous research has addressed cross-sectional differences in the propensity to herd, this paper explores changes in herding behavior over time. I present two theories. The first, based on Prospect Theory, predicts that a forecaster’s propensity to herd is inversely related to the size of his recent forecast error. The second theory predicts that the propensity to herd decreases when other forecasters make larger errors. The results reveal significant herding behavior and support for both theories. Implications for consumers of macroforecasts are addressed.
Freedman, Adam J., "Mud on Your Face, Big Disgrace Vs. The Wisdom of Crowds: Macroforecasters' Herding Behavior Over Time" (2012). Economics Honors Projects. 50.
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