Honors Projects

Do User Fees Increase Tuberculosis Notifications?

Chioma Y. Chukwumah — Wed, 29 May 2013 14:20:38 PDT

Public health sectors around the world strive to provide accessible and affordable care. Tight government budgets and growing populations lead countries to consider adding or raising charges to health care consumers. These user fees may affect the quality, equity and revenue of health care. This paper investigates the impact of user fees on notifications of tuberculosis. In the panel data composed of 176 countries from 1960 to 2012, I find no evidence that suggests user fees increase tuberculosis. In contrast, I find strong and robust evidence suggesting user fees are associated with fewer new cases of tuberculosis.

Is the U.S. Stock Market Sufficiently Efficient around Hurricanes?

Hao Ding — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:16:17 PDT

This paper tests the U.S. stock market efficiency around all 18 hurricanes that have hit continental U.S. since 2000. Using an event-study methodology, the study analyzes the effect of those 18 hurricanes on a sample of 60 property-casualty insurance companies before and following the hurricanes’ landfall. The study supports the semi-strong form market efficiency and concludes that market inefficiency only exists during the pre-landfall period. Moreover, a significant negative relationship is found between the wind speed and firms’ risk exposure, which reiterates the market’s ability to differentiate hurricanes by their damaging power and to discriminate P&C insurers by their existence of exposure.

U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior

Qianyi Yang — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 14:45:44 PST

This paper examines the time-varying and currency-dependency nature of exchange rate responses following the U.S. monetary policy announcements. Using high frequency exchange rate data in the past decade, we find that the exchange rates of most major currencies against the US Dollar respond negatively to the monetary surprises in the 2001 recession, while the response becomes positive during the 2008 recession. Meanwhile, the JPY has the opposite response than the other major currencies in the 2008 recession. These results further confirm the nonlinearity in the relationship between exchange rate dynamics and fundamental news announcements.

Mud on Your Face, Big Disgrace Vs. The Wisdom of Crowds: Macroforecasters' Herding Behavior Over Time

Adam J. Freedman — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 09:19:24 PDT

I examine the herding behavior of macroeconomic forecasters for real GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts. Although previous research has addressed cross-sectional differences in the propensity to herd, this paper explores changes in herding behavior over time. I present two theories. The first, based on Prospect Theory, predicts that a forecaster’s propensity to herd is inversely related to the size of his recent forecast error. The second theory predicts that the propensity to herd decreases when other forecasters make larger errors. The results reveal significant herding behavior and support for both theories. Implications for consumers of macroforecasts are addressed.

The Country-Specific Nature of Apparel Elasticities and Impacts of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement

Lauren A. Martinez — Mon, 21 May 2012 08:55:46 PDT

Beginning with Krugman and Helpman’s theory of demand for differentiated products, this paper estimates 104 direct price elasticities of demand for apparel in the United States. While the literature has established that apparel elasticities vary by category and across countries, I examine how price elasticities of demand for apparel vary by country, regions, product characteristics, and after the end of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement. Results suggest that the country has the greatest single explanatory power in predicting price elasticities, and additionally, the “race to the bottom” hypothesis in the apparel industry is supported through increasing elasticity of 3.4% from the mean value of overall price elasticity after the end of the MFA.

What Factors Influence Consumers’ Decisions to Purchase Energy Star Appliances?

Rosamond Mate — Wed, 16 May 2012 07:19:56 PDT

This paper examines how differences in operating costs and market availability affect ownership of Energy Star dishwashers and clothes washers. I use logistic regressions and data from the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey and the EPA’s Energy Star program to quantify these effects. Results indicate that controlling for temporal changes is very important; after doing so I find that differences in availability of efficient appliances do not affect ownership patterns. Overall, the frequency of appliance use does not increase the household’s responsiveness to electricity prices, which suggests that consumers do not fully value efficiency when choosing among appliances.

How has the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) affected the dynamics between AIDS and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Jose R. Rubio — Wed, 16 May 2012 07:15:12 PDT

This paper quantifies the economic effect of the use of antiretroviral therapy as a frontline strategy to fight AIDS using data on 29 countries in Sub-‐Saharan Africa. To this purpose, I use two-‐stage least squares estimation defining both a health equation and an education and health capital-‐augmented structural Solow growth equation. Through the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV prevalence in the health equation, I indirectly link HIV and ART to economic growth. The results show that the HIV/AIDS epidemic reduces GDP per capita by 0.175% per marginal increase in HIV prevalence. ART increases GDP per capita by 0.048% per 1% increase in ART provision. On average, this represents a 0.5% higher GDP per capita per year attributable to ART in highly affected countries (HIV prevalence>20%).

How does the U.S. stock market affect the stocks of Chinese state-owned companies?

Yan Huang — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:33:33 PDT

This paper examines how the U.S. stock market affects the Chinese stock market, with a focus on Chinese state-owned companies, and compares the impacts on different industries and time periods. Results show that the U.S. stock market affects non-state-owned companies and state-owned companies with international business, but not state-owned companies without international business. The correlations between two markets are stronger in industries with lower percentages of state-owned companies. The impacts the U.S. stock market has on the Chinese stock market are increasing in time and in longer term.

Examining Market Response Following Hurricane Landfall: Does the U.S. Stock Market React Efficiently to Hurricanes?

Evan R. Hewitt — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:30:23 PDT

This paper examines market efficiency surrounding hurricanes in the immediate post-landfall period. Using hypotheses derived from distinctions between the efficient market hypothesis and the adaptive market hypothesis, it runs event studies on a sample of gulf-exposed property and casualty insurers for hurricanes that made landfall domestically in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Testing these post-landfall inefficiency measurements shows that a statistically significant window of inefficiency exists immediately following hurricane landfall. This confirms the prediction of the adaptive market hypothesis, and as a result shows that hurricanes create opportunities for abnormal risk-adjusted returns in this market.

Does School Quality Affect Real Estate Prices? The Effect of Top-Tier Elementary Schools on Property Prices in Shanghai

Wanyi Li — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:23:38 PDT

This study adapted the hedonic pricing model and inspected how varying elementary school quality affects property prices in Shanghai. Because the variation of school quality appeared before the capitalization of the housing market, the obtained results suggest a causal relationship. The data set comprises top-tier elementary school information from eWOM, the yearly school attendance zones published by the government, and the Shanghai Existing Property Index, which has a sample of similarly structured apartments. Main results show that prices on average increase 41.9% more in the top-tier school districts under the standardized housing system, and range from 15.5% to 69.7% among different districts in urban Shanghai.

What is the optimal subsidy for exercise? Informing health insurance companies' fitness reimbursement programs

Molly E. Frean — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:15:43 PDT

Health care costs account for 17% of US GDP and many programs and policies seek to reduce these costs. This paper focuses on exercise as preventive care due to its immense physiological benefits. I model the profit-maximizing choice of health insurance companies to subsidize exercise and the utility-maximizing choice of individuals to engage in exercise using a traditional principal-agent framework. I then use principles from behavioral economics and psychology to critique these models and provide further insight into understanding our underconsumption of such preventive services. I end with an evaluation of current programs and suggestions for improvement using empirical findings.

Does Information Lead to Household Electricity Conservation?

Devon M. Kristiansen — Thu, 10 May 2012 09:49:21 PDT

This paper estimates the effect of information on residential electricity consumption. Household reading expenditure, education level of the household head, and state “green” electricity pricing program participation rate represent the probability that a household has encountered information relating the carbon emission externalities of energy consumption and human-driven climate change. Reading expenditure has a significant negative effect on household electricity consumption. Initial increases in educational attainment increase electricity consumption, but education beyond high school reduces it. The predicted social norm effect of green pricing participation is insignificant.

Fibonacci Retracements and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Nikhil Gupta — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 13:20:43 PDT

The Paradoxical Effect of Intercity Transportation and Communications Infrastructure on Urban Concentration: The Dispersion-Concentration Model

Alvaro Ballarin Cabrera — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 12:27:51 PDT

This study examines the effect of intercity transportation and communications infrastructure on urban concentration on a sample of 84 countries between the years 1960 and 2010. By comparing the effects of interregional transportation and communications infrastructure on primacy and urbanization, I find that (1) such investments promote population dispersion amongst connected areas and (2) population concentration from unconnected locations into connected ones. Therefore, intercity transportation and communications infrastructure is only effective at reducing excessive concentration when the dispersion effect exceeds the concentration effect.

The effects of parental migration on child nutrition

Benjamin Langworthy — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 08:12:09 PDT

Remittances can affect child nutrition in two main ways, through increased income from remittances and changes in time allocation within the household. It is not theoretically apparent how a parent migrating and sending back remittances will affect child nutrition. Any added income will likely improve child nutrition by relieving any household income constraint, while the loss of a parent or other adult may reduce the time available to prepare food and care for the child. This study uses data from Peru to find that to 3000 Soles in remittances will make up for a parent not being in the household.

What is the effect of trade on the gender wage gap in the Mexican manufacturing sector?

jimerson j. asencio ferrufino — Thu, 05 May 2011 06:43:22 PDT

This study examines the effect of trade-induced price changes on the gender wage gap in Mexico before and after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. By applying the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, a result in trade theory that links relative goods prices and relative wages, this paper tests whether changes in relative prices of female-intensive goods can explain changes in female relative wages. Using household employment surveys and production data from Mexico’s National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) for the 1988 to 2010 period, we find that (1) the gender wage gap in manufacturing has increased after NAFTA and (2) there is a statistically significant and positive long-run relationship between relative output prices and relative wages.

How Do 100% Smoke-Free Bans Affect Smoking Behavior?

Elizabeth K. Vermann — Thu, 05 May 2011 06:36:26 PDT

Since 2001, the pervasiveness of 100% smoke-free bans has increased dramatically, while the smoking rate among American adults has decreased modestly. This study examines the effect of these bans in workplaces, bars, and restaurants on changes in smoking behavior (initiation, prevalence, continuation, consumption, and cessation) using individual-level smoking data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey. Generally, this paper finds that, relative to increases in cigarette taxes, bans are less successful in changing smokers' behavior. Nonetheless, results indicate that of the three types of bans, those in restaurants are correlated with the largest likelihood of behavioral change.

How Does Average Protein Consumption Affect Happiness?

Nina Wellander — Wed, 04 May 2011 07:57:17 PDT

This paper uses individual-level data to examine the potential link between average protein consumption and happiness within 87 countries between the years of 1981 and 2007. After controlling for other variables that influence happiness as outlined in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, I find that average protein consumption has a statistically significant effect on average subjective well-being. Specifically, the results show that as average protein consumption as a percentage of total caloric intake increases, happiness increases.

How Does Light Rail Transit Affect Urban Land Use?

Needham B. Hurst — Wed, 04 May 2011 07:35:38 PDT

This paper estimates the effect of the Hiawatha Light Rail Transit (LRT) line on land use change in Minneapolis, MN, between 2000 and 2010. I use a binomial logit model and find that within the 1-mile submarket near LRT, the effect of distance to LRT stations on land use change had a different radius and magnitude depending on existing land use. The effect of LRT on conversions of low-density housing to denser uses only extended out to 90 feet from stations after LRT went into operation. Vacant and industrial land were the most likely to experience land use change, especially in working class, mixed land use neighborhoods with higher population densities. In general, the effect of LRT on land use change was limited in high income neighborhoods. Zoning policy changes around stations had a small but significant positive effect on land use change.

What is the Impact of Income on the Demand for Bushmeat?: a study of the relationship between income and bushmeat near the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania

Iryna Postolovska — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 11:44:45 PDT

In Sub-Saharan Africa, increasing levels of bushmeat consumption and unsustainable bushmeat hunting have become one of the central concerns of conservationists. Many conservationists have recently begun to see income growth as a possible strategy to decrease wildlife consumption. This study tests whether or not this strategy would be effective near the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. Results from both the aggregated and disaggregated demand functions indicate that bushmeat is a necessity in the region, implying that increases in income would lead to less than proportional increases in consumption and suggesting that income growth alone is not a viable conservation strategy. Other food sources in addition to economic activities that could provide both protein and income must be made available in order to reduce the demand for bushmeat.